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决定2018年房价的两件大事:汇率、棚改

房天下   2017-12-27 11:27

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 微软雅黑; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(102,102,102); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; MARGIN: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); TEXT-INDENT: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">圣诞节,媒体总结好消息,2017年,人民币对美元年内升5.4%,而明年或在6.40至6.80波动。

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 微软雅黑; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(102,102,102); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; MARGIN: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); TEXT-INDENT: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">同时还有一条消息,2018年我国棚改目标为580万套。2017年12月23日召开的住房城乡建设会议公布这一目标,重点是大幅超出市场预期。

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 微软雅黑; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(102,102,102); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; MARGIN: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); TEXT-INDENT: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">这两则新闻有什么联系?放在2018年的大背景下,杠杆游戏觉得这两条消息非常值得探讨。甚至可能决定2018年的房价大势。

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 微软雅黑; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(102,102,102); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; MARGIN: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); TEXT-INDENT: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">1、汇率、房价互相影响,2018年资产泡沫会否击穿,全看房价、汇率是否稳得住

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 微软雅黑; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(102,102,102); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; MARGIN: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); TEXT-INDENT: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">经历过2016年末2017年初人民币的汇率压力,一泻千里的疼痛无法忘却,耗资万亿美元的汇率保卫战极为深痛。

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 微软雅黑; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(102,102,102); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; MARGIN: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); TEXT-INDENT: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">如果人民币在即将到来的2018年可以维持媒体预测的汇率,国内资产价格压力将大大减负。问题是,如何确保预测成为现实?

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 微软雅黑; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(102,102,102); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; MARGIN: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); TEXT-INDENT: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">客观来说,经济、房价走势和汇率实际互为支撑、相互影响。

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 微软雅黑; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(102,102,102); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; MARGIN: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); TEXT-INDENT: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">这就是为什么很多人预测,联储的持续加息、缩表、美国减税,提振美国经济的同时,将导致我国房价大幅下跌。而房价大跌,则进一步导致大量资金外流,汇率承压。

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 微软雅黑; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(102,102,102); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; MARGIN: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); TEXT-INDENT: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">同样反过来,如果我们经济稳定,不被美国虹吸,汇率稳定,目前房价也就能撑住。

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 微软雅黑; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(102,102,102); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; MARGIN: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); TEXT-INDENT: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 微软雅黑; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(102,102,102); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; MARGIN: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); TEXT-INDENT: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">通过我国较为严格的资本管理,对资本大鳄的警告和震慑,大块头资金一定时期内守住是可能的。但前提是国内房价和经济稳定,否则再严厉的管理规定也会被消解。

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 微软雅黑; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(102,102,102); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; MARGIN: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); TEXT-INDENT: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">从这个角度而言,更好理解前几天,杠杆游戏从中央经济工会议内容中,解读出的,中央目标是维持目前房价,为其他改革争取时间。详见《醒醒吧,2018楼市难巨变!中央楼市政策有微调》(12月21日)

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 微软雅黑; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(102,102,102); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; MARGIN: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); TEXT-INDENT: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">按照中央经济会议的指示,调控不会轻易加码,开发商和房价依旧可以僵持。表述说得很清楚,保持房地产市场调控政策连续性和稳定性,分清中央和地方事权,实行差别化调控。

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 微软雅黑; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(102,102,102); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; MARGIN: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); TEXT-INDENT: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">换句话说,只要不是过分的地方,上头不会给压力加码调控。同样,如果出现形势不利的局面,上峰也不会阻拦地方“小救市”。

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 微软雅黑; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(102,102,102); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; MARGIN: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); TEXT-INDENT: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">调控政策之外,影响房价至关重要的货币政策,杠杆游戏据中央经济工作会议的表述预测,2018年和2017年比可能无明显变化,既为保汇率留有空间,也不至于大幅逼跌房价。

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 微软雅黑; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(102,102,102); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; MARGIN: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); TEXT-INDENT: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">好了,中央的战略定好了。但具体战术呢?现在北京二手房已经是跌了,二线城市基本企稳,会不会跟着跌,怕不怕跌?三四线城市总刚需就那样,去库存已经取得这么好效果,好效果如何继续维持?

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 微软雅黑; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(102,102,102); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; MARGIN: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); TEXT-INDENT: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">请看下文分析。

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 微软雅黑; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(102,102,102); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; MARGIN: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); TEXT-INDENT: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">2、棚改目标比预期大幅提升,三四线城市房价找到新支撑,一二线城市则可以靠虹吸和人才吸引稳定房价

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 微软雅黑; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(102,102,102); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; MARGIN: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); TEXT-INDENT: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">12月23日,是的,周六,这天召开的住房城乡建设会议公布我国2018年改造各类棚户区的目标:580万套。

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 微软雅黑; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(102,102,102); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; MARGIN: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); TEXT-INDENT: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">这一目标是什么概念?2017年,我国棚改制定的目标是600万套。日前住建部公布了实际数据,2017年各类棚户区改造已开工609万套。略微超额完成。

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 微软雅黑; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(102,102,102); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; MARGIN: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); TEXT-INDENT: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">而2016年时目标为606万套。为此,国开行等金融机构支持了1万多亿元的融资。真是大投资、大建设、大就业,有力稳定了经济。不仅如此,还刺激房价。

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 微软雅黑; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(102,102,102); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; MARGIN: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); TEXT-INDENT: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 微软雅黑; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(102,102,102); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; MARGIN: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); TEXT-INDENT: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">这几年棚改和过去不同了。以前喜欢补偿房子,现在流行货币化补偿安置。2014、2015年库存积压,于是货币化补偿安置作为“去库存”的主要手段之一被使用。

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 微软雅黑; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(102,102,102); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; MARGIN: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); TEXT-INDENT: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">大家拿着钱不仅开心,买房爽快,动辄全款,还参与炒房,也能刺激一些其他消费。

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 微软雅黑; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(102,102,102); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; MARGIN: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); TEXT-INDENT: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">在2013年之前,棚改货币安置比例非常低,杠杆游戏看过多个研究机构的数据,大致结论都是10%以内。而到了今年,保守估计也在五六成。就算五六成,300万套房子吧,按照50-100万元/套计算,意味着可以提振1.5-3万亿元住房销售的规模。

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 微软雅黑; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(102,102,102); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; MARGIN: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); TEXT-INDENT: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">而我国目前的住房年销售额也就10万亿出头。

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 微软雅黑; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(102,102,102); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; MARGIN: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); TEXT-INDENT: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">有意思的是,2017上半年,国务院制定的2018年至2020年的棚改目标1500万套,年均也就500万套。眼看着棚改规模下降,联储加息、缩表、减税咄咄逼人,我们提振棚改量。

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 微软雅黑; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(102,102,102); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; MARGIN: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); TEXT-INDENT: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 微软雅黑; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(102,102,102); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; MARGIN: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); TEXT-INDENT: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">在三四线城市去库存取得不错效果,新的库存可能又要来时,棚改加码实在是利好。

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 微软雅黑; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(102,102,102); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; MARGIN: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); TEXT-INDENT: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">与此同时,一二线城市尽管供地2017年整体增加明显,但需求确实相对过硬。目前的供给实际和需求是不匹配的。加之大家都在打人才争夺战,明里暗地放松限购,销售和房价未来一定时间也有了支撑。

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 微软雅黑; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(102,102,102); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; MARGIN: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); TEXT-INDENT: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">倒不是说一些泡沫不缩小一点,起码上述举措保证了销售增速可能保持稳定。有销售增速、节奏的保证,如果外部压力可控,房价维持基本稳定还是可能的。

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 微软雅黑; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(102,102,102); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; MARGIN: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); TEXT-INDENT: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">这不就是中央和地方都期待的吗?

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 微软雅黑; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(102,102,102); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; MARGIN: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); TEXT-INDENT: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">3、联储加息压力、资本市场大发展冲动,依旧是房价头上高悬的利剑

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 微软雅黑; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(102,102,102); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; MARGIN: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); TEXT-INDENT: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">根据杠杆游戏上述分析,一二三四线城市,2018年楼市都有了新支撑,国内资金信心得到保障,汇率压力也就减轻。反过来,进一步稳定国内房价,防止资本外流。

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 微软雅黑; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(102,102,102); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; MARGIN: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); TEXT-INDENT: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">为了预防和给汇率稳定空间,中央经济工作会议明确,如果不是不得不,货币2018年大放水没有可能(外部环境也不给这个空间),和2017年一样,不松不紧。

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 微软雅黑; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(102,102,102); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; MARGIN: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); TEXT-INDENT: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">货币政策的目标诉求看来不少,汇率、房价都要。

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 微软雅黑; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(102,102,102); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; MARGIN: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); TEXT-INDENT: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 微软雅黑; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(102,102,102); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; MARGIN: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); TEXT-INDENT: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">当然,上述分析也表明,守住资产价格和汇率之重要,很大程度是要抵御美联储加息的咄咄逼人。

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 微软雅黑; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(102,102,102); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; MARGIN: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); TEXT-INDENT: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">反过来也说明,联储态度、美国经济对我国房价影响之大。譬如货币政策今年开始调整、调控力度达到,房价不再疯涨,很大程度都是因为美国货币宽松周期结束,我们再不能跟着放水、做大资产泡沫。

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 微软雅黑; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(102,102,102); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; MARGIN: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); TEXT-INDENT: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">很有意思,改变中国房价走势的居然是美联储。至于稳定还是跌一点,这就不好说,反正疯狂继续是难了。

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 微软雅黑; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(102,102,102); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; MARGIN: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); TEXT-INDENT: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">除了联储加息、缩表、美国减税的利剑,中央经济工作会议还提出,“促进多层次资本市场健康发展,更好为实体经济服务”——上周杠杆游戏在文章里提醒过。刘主席也说要做资本市场强国。

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 微软雅黑; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(102,102,102); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; MARGIN: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); TEXT-INDENT: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">现在房价是崛起了,匹配大国地位,资本市场也要努力。问题是,资金总是逐利的,股市要略微从楼市“抽血”,资本要回流部分实体,意味着房价支撑就少了点。

RDER-: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 微软雅黑; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WHITE-SPACE: normal; WORD-SPACING: 0px; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; COLOR: rgb(102,102,102); OUTLINE-WIDTH: medium; PADDING-BOTTOM: 15px; FONT-STYLE: normal; PADDING-: 15px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; ORPHANS: 2; WIDOWS: 2; MARGIN: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); TEXT-INDENT: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">当然,如果资本市场可以做起来,良性循环,赚了钱买房也是正常的。所以短期内,如果资本市场可以吸引到更多钱,恐怕和加息一样,房价不敢掉以轻心。

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